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August
2018 31

Your Weekly Economic Briefing: GDP, Personal Income, Outlays, ISM Non-Manufacturing, and Wholesale

This blog is your weekly economic briefing: GDP, Personal Income, Outlays, ISM Non-Manufacturing, and Wholesale Reports summary.

GDP Growth Report:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce has released its 2018 Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Report on July 27th.  Here is the summary of the economic impacts:   

  • GDP Growth For Q2 Jumps to 4.1% and Considered To Be at Best pace in nearly FOUR years
  • The increase in Q2 reflected increases in consumer spending, exports (especially farmers rushed to get soybeans to China ahead of expected retaliatory tariffs to take effect in the coming days), business investment, and government spending, while inventory investment and housing investment decreased. Imports, which is a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in services and in both durable and non-durable goods. The increase in business investment reflected increases in structures, intellectual property products, and equipment. The increase in government spending reflected increases in federal national defense, and state and local government spending.
  • Q2 GDP is the third-best growth rate since the Great Recession.

 

You may refer to this report for more details:  https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm

 

Personal Income and Outlays Report:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce has released its Personal Income and Outlays Report on July 31, 2018.  Here is the summary of the economic impacts:   

  • Personal income increased to $71.7 billion, or 0.4% in June 2018, according to the estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Additionally, Disposable Personal Income (DPI) increased to $65.3 billion, or 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.1 billion, or 0.4%.
  • Real DPI increased 0.3% in June and Real PCE increased 0.3%. The PCE price index increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1%.
  • The increase in personal income in June primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries as well as personal dividend income.
  • The $39.7 billion increase in real PCE in June primarily reflected an increase of $36.4 billion in spending for services. The largest contributor to the increase was spending for food services as well as accommodations.
  • Spending for goods increased to $1.3 billion.
  • Personal outlays increased to $62.7 billion in June 2018. Personal saving was $1,049.7 billion in June 2018, while the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.8%.

 

You may refer to this report for more details:  https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report July 2018:

The Institute for Supply Management released its Non-Manufacturing Report for the month of July 2018. Below is a summary of the economic impact findings:

  • Non-manufacturing Index (NMI) slid down by 3.5 points from last month closing at 55.7%. This indicates continuous growth in the sector for 102 consecutive months albeit at a slower pace.
  • Business activity and production plummeted to 56.5% from May’s 63.9%. As with the NMI, it still signifies a slower but continuous growth. 12 out of 15 industries reported an expansion in business activities.
  • New orders are still growing but quite sluggish as it declined by 6.2 points to 57%. The agriculture industry registered the highest growth for new orders while educational services reported the opposite.
  • Faster growth is noted for employment rate as it jumped up from 53.6% to 56.1% or an increase of 2.5 points. Survey respondents are optimistic that this trend will continue in the succeeding months in view of the expanding US economy.
  • Meanwhile, supplier deliveries continue to drop by 2.5 points to 53%. Purchasing executives cited shortage of drivers as a major contributing factor in the delayed schedule of deliveries. Support Services and Retail Trade industries have however reported faster deliveries.
  • A slower growth is also evident in new export orders which recorded a 2.5-point decrease to 58%.
  • Inventory rates remain stagnant at 53.5%. Out of all the survey respondents, 27% said that they do not have inventories or do not measure them.
  • Continuous increase in prices for July is documented by a 2.7-point increase in price index capping at 63.4%. Commodities which reported a price increase are aluminum and related products, diesel, electronic components, fuel, gasoline, metal products, oil, pharmaceuticals, plastic products, steel and related products, and transportation and trucking services.
  • Imports also reported a slightly faster growth as it rose by 1 point to 52.5%.
  • A total of 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth for this month lead by Mining, Public Administration, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting. Two industries have however reported a decline: Educational Services and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.
  • Survey respondents are generally optimistic due to the expanding US economy but concerns over tariff, global trade policy changes and shortage of skilled labor tend to dampen this optimism.

The above data are compiled from survey responses provided by purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is an index that is based on surveys of more than 400 non-manufacturing firms' purchasing and supply executives, within 60 sectors across the country, conducted by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index tracks economic data, just like the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index. A composite diffusion index is created based on the data from these surveys, which monitors economic conditions of the nation.

 

You may refer to this link for a more detailed report:  https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1

 

WHOLESALE TRADE JUNE 2018:

The United States Census Bureau released the country’s June 2018 Wholesale Trade Report. Below is a summary of their findings (data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes):

Sales

  • Estimated monthly sales of merchant wholesalers dropped to $506.7 million, 0.1% lower than last month but 10.2% higher than June last year
  • Sales for durable goods increased to $243.3 million or 0.2%, a slightly lower rate than last month but a significant improvement from the figure reported same time last year
  • The furniture industry recorded the highest surge in sales at 4.6% higher than May. Metals claimed the top spot June last year
  • Non-durable goods slipped by 0.3% closing in at $263.3 million;
  • Petroleum remained a staple bestseller among non-durable goods with recorded sales of $64.5 million while farm products registered a sales increase of 0.9%, the highest this month

Inventories

  • The monthly wholesale inventory for the month of June totaled $632.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 billion from last month also surprisingly outpaced sales.
  • Durable goods tallied a total inventory of $383.7 million equivalent to an increase of 0.8%, 5 points higher than last month but definitely lower than figures same time last year while Non-durable goods inventory closed in at $248.7 million commensurate to a 1% decline
  • The highest inventory increase among durable goods was noted in metal products at 4.1% while automotive fell behind at -1.2%
  • Machineries reported the highest inventory amount at $100.7 million followed by automotive and electrical products
  • Though most non-durable goods indicated a decline, paper products lead at an increase of 1.2%
  • As sales for farm products surged this month, it is interesting to note that inventories declined by 6.5% indicating that demand exceeds supply and bringing about an opportunity for production increase among manufacturers
  • Drugs remain the top inventory for non-durable goods at $62.5 million

Inventories/ Sales Ratios

  • Ratio of inventory over sales remained at 1.25%
  • Durable goods ratio increased very slightly by 0.01 points to 1.58% while a reversed scenario is evident in non-durable goods at 0.94%, a 0.01 point decrease last month
  • Metal products reported the highest increase of inventory in relation to sales with a ratio of 2.08% as opposed to May’s 1.97%. Expectedly, farm products posted the biggest decline in ratio.

This survey covers wholesale merchants who sell goods directly from manufacturers including jobbers, industrial distributors, exporters and importers.

For a detailed look on this report, please refer to this link:

https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

About AngelouEconomics:

AngelouEconomics has worked with numerous professional and business associations in building dozens of unique economic impact studies among other types of projects including site selection projects as well as strategic economic development projects. Some projects have examined the effects of statewide policy measures, such as the Texas Bathroom Bill or ban on Sanctuary Cities. Other projects have measured the contribution of member networks in terms of jobs, wages, and total economic output. Like this study for Prospera, a nonprofit organization which specializes in providing bilingual assistance to Hispanic entrepreneurs in Florida. Economic impact studies are effective tools for quantifying and illustrating the value of individual professional and business associations. They are versatile, as they can illustrate the value or impact of a specific policy or quantify the economic contribution of your members to the local, regional, and nationwide economies.

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